Recent Performance and Market Reaction
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ASML Holding NV’s stock dropped sharply by 16% on October 15, closing at $872.27, and continued its slide by another 4% the following morning. This comes after the company lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to €30-35 billion, prompting a broader sell-off in global semiconductor stocks. Key players like Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC experienced declines between 3% and 5%, contributing to a $420 billion reduction in global chip market value.

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Financial and Operational Updates
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In its preliminary Q3 results, ASML {{ m-tag option="price" ticker="ASML" currency="USD" }} reported €2.63 billion in new orders, down significantly from €5.57 billion in Q2. The company cited delayed orders from major clients, including Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, due to lingering overcapacity in the semiconductor industry. ASML also projected a 48% year-over-year decline in China sales, partially attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting export regulations.

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Impact on Non-AI Chip Demand and AI Segment Resilience
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While demand for AI chips remains strong, ASML's forecast underscores continued weakness in non-AI chip markets, as well as delayed investments in new factory equipment. Major chipmakers have scaled back orders, suggesting that the anticipated recovery is more gradual than previously expected. Analysts indicate that overcapacity from earlier pandemic-driven expansions has dampened demand for ASML’s lithography systems, particularly in the memory and logic segments.

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Záver
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ASML’s revised outlook reflects both industry-specific challenges and broader market pressures, with delayed orders and overcapacity at major chipmakers impacting short-term prospects. However, ASML's strategic focus on AI and advanced lithography systems positions it for potential recovery as market conditions stabilize, making it a stock to watch for long-term investors.

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